COVID and the 2021 season

Discussion relating to 2021 airshows/fly-ins/exercises/other events. Post news before the event and post your photos afterwards! Please create only one thread per event.
TooTallDean
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COVID and the 2021 season

Post by TooTallDean » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:24 am

Last year I was in the early stages of planning a trip to England, with RIAT and RNIAD being the top of my list of To Do items.
We know how that ended...

So now that RIAT has just been cancelled for this year, I'm wondering how many other shows will get spiked this year.

With the Canada/USA border closed since last March, and likely all this summer, I dont expect to see any US shows, even if they do go ahead.

Thoughts?
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Adam
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Post by Adam » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:45 am

I have been talking about exactly this with some display pilot friends here in the UK in recent days, including a big chat about our 2021 season with my own team last night. One chap is planning to do no airshows at all this year to avoid the uncertainty and almost nobody has signed any contracts yet, but generally the consensus seems to be that here in the UK we might have some mid/large shows in late Aug and Sept and probably small ones from around June. Seaside shows will be challenging and RIAT is quite possibly the most complex airshow on the planet to hold in a pandemic, so we're not reading much into those being cancelled, but unless something unexpected happens, there's no reason to suspect that Shuttleworth, Duxford, Old Buck, Little Gransden, Midlands etc won't be able to hold small shows in June and July if they're prepared to shoulder a little risk.

Other big talking points at the moment are a potential shortage of supporting infrastructure (eg fencing) in an overcrowded September month (I can't imagine this would apply in the US) and a lack of available insurance for event organisers. European shows cancelling now seem to be doing so not because they don't think it'll be safe or possible, but because there's still a lot of uncertainty, money needs to be spent now and they can't take the financial risk.
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Flightline Uk
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Post by Flightline Uk » Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:44 pm

This understandably has been the major working topic at the European Airshow Council Digital Convention which I'm currently participating in.

I'll get the bad news out of the way first.

Simply hoping you'll be able to hold an event as 'normal' is not an option. Those biligerently carrying on as normal may well find themselves coming unstuck. It is not a situation that's going to go away anytime soon and you have to acknowledge that to the public.

The main issue anywhere (Europe, UK and some in the US) at the moment is the lack of certainty about the future of restrictions and financial security. That will not only reflect on 2021, but also 2022 and maybe even beyond and will affect events large and small. One very prominent organiser in Europe predicted his largest event may not return until 2023 or even 2024 (having been postponed from 2021) with his country seeing only very few, if any other smaller events in the meantime simply becuase there is just no certainty and the financial risk to his events is just too great. The recent Eastbourne cancellation is as much to do with the financial risk as it is safety. Eastbourne Council have just been bailed out by the UK Government having nearly gone bankrupt due to the extra demands of the pandemic so any financial risk is too much for them. Others (private and council run) will no doubt be in similar positions.

The direction of the pandemic is problematic. At the moment in Western areas of Europe its retreating slowly. But in Eastern Europe they are currently tightening restrictions due to fears of a resurgence before they can administer enough vaccine. Border crossings are going to be difficult for sometime to come due to the disparity between countries. Local differences/restrictions may also occur within even the smaller countries. This hits your audience and maybe your participants too. Different countries are restricting events in different ways. Currently in France they are looking at national rules dictating fully seated big events capped at 5,000 which will no doubt be causing a few headaches. Hop over the borders in any direction you see something totally different.

In the UK and Europe, the local authorities (LAs) have the ability to set restrictions and cancel events despite what 'national' rules maybe. In an extreme case, the 2020 Southampton Boat Show despite having all sorts of COVID-secure policies in place and being mainly outside was cancelled by the local authority literally just as it was about to open. (The show was fully built and ready to go) That incurred crippling losses for the event organiser and has had massive reprocussions throughout the entire events industry in terms of insurance and legal matters. This threat hangs over all events no matter how much they engage with local authorities. There is also some quite considerable inconsistanies between local authorities. Old Warden and Duxford are not that far apart (30 miles or so) but were treated completely differently by their respective LAs - something that even the Aviation regulators picked up on! There may also be (hopefully just in the short term) some issues with local residents who will be nervous of visitors coming to their area.

'Social Distancing' is likely to be a factor for at least the medium term. When you look at airshow venues, most showground areas (on or off airfield) offer plenty of scope for social distancing. Indeed, in a UK Goverment evidence session this week, the scientific advisors said no infections had been linked to the crowded beaches seen in the UK last summer. Social distancing can be where some of the smaller airshows can struggle - particularly the smaller airfields which tend to have a lot of pinch points in their layout. However, the main risk is controlling social distancing into and out of events for both audiences, staff and participants - event entrance queues and pinch points, car parks, public transport, park and ride, other crowding outside your event etc. Where does an Event Organiser's responsibity end?

Another major problem facing airshows is the loss of experience/currency not only of the participants, but also those charged with overseeing safety. For some events, it could be three-four years where their FDD/air-bosses and supporting Flying Control Committees will have seen a display! The same goes for those seeing overall event safety. There are other issues with experience simply dissappearing as people retire and fewer people come in but that is not caused by or exclusive to the pandemic.

As for event contractors, there are a wide range of issues affecting events that will last for much longer than August and September. Many Contractors have sold off the infrastructure they offer to events in order to survive as well as reduce thier staff. One organiser highlighted they are now looking at using multiple suppliers for things like toilets and event structures to get their coverage they require for just one event in 2022. This situation will improve over time but will likely mean event costs go up.

Now for the good news!

In the UK and Europe, we do have some fantastically resiliant Event organsiers and support network working on getting events going again. Its going to take some creativity at least for the next year or so. It is also important those events communicate as much as possible with their audiences.

Looking forward to 2021, there are some organisers really working very hard on some very interesting plans for 2021. In the UK, the Shuttleworth collection's proven Drive-ins will at least provide them with a full season and Duxford should be fairly resilient too having planned for a full show under 2020 conditions. They will underpin at least the early part of the 2021 Display Season in the UK whenever it is finally able to start.

Elsewhere, across Europe and UK there are some quite inventive plans to provide airshow participants and audiences the level of safety they require. For instance, Finland (which already has good experience) and other european countries are also looking at further drive-in events. Other elements being looked at are design and timing of the flying display, various technologies aimed at crowd management and some very innovative showgrounds.

There is light at the end of the tunnel and we'll get there at some point. However, before then we will see many more cancellations and dissappointments for all members of the airshow community. Here is hoping 2021 sees us learn to live with and surpress coronavirus as much as is possible on a road back towards something appraoching normality. (whatever that is - it certainly is not airshows)
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kalamazookid
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Post by kalamazookid » Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:24 pm

Simply hoping you'll be able to hold an event as 'normal' is not an option. Those biligerently carrying on as normal may well find themselves coming unstuck. It is not a situation that's going to go away anytime soon and you have to acknowledge that to the public.
This is exactly what I keep coming back to in trying to judge whether an event is likely to take place. It's hard to imagine major events taking place without some level of restrictions. There are a number of ways events could choose to address this, whether that's limited tickets, a drive-in format, other measures for social distancing, non-contact entry, allowing people to bring their own food, some combination of those things, etc. I feel much more confident in the events that have openly acknowledged these challenges and have communicated that they are exploring options for holding their event. Those events that are not putting in that work are likely to be disappointed IMHO.

Airshows do, I think, have a level of responsibility to communicate what measures they are going to enforce and how they are going to enforce them, and then hold people to whatever standard of behavior is expected at that event. We all have our own judgment on levels of risk, and I'm not going to tell anyone what theirs should or should not be, but many people are going to continue making decisions regarding their participation in activities with an eye on safety. Those holding events have a responsibility to communicate their expectations and then hold their staff and guests to those expectations. I'm ok with wearing a mask, staying distanced from people, etc. if that's what the expectations of the organizers are. Their house, their rules.

I do think the airshow industry as a whole is creative enough to make large events work this year, but that's also going to vary by locality. Some areas will experience more restrictive measures with regards to holding events. Some airports may not be practical for a drive-in or other alternative format. London and some of the other drive-in events towards the end of last summer proved that alternative formats can work. Hopefully similar practices can be adopted elsewhere.

Warbirds and vintage jets are my primary interest and motivator for attending airshows. I have seen several museums and other organizations with a focus on these areas get creative to fundraise and hold flying events, often with very limited admission and a high entry fee. I find it likely that these types of events will continue this year. The cost of some of these events will probably be prohibitive to some. I personally would not have attended the one event I did that was held in this format last year during a "normal" season. Having not spent any money on travel for obvious reasons though, I felt it was justified in this one instance. If the cost for drive-in shows remains high though, I would actually feel more inclined to spend my money on a smaller museum event held by an organization I support.

I have no inside information on any of the above - just musing as an enthusiast and making educated guesses based on what's been happening.

I personally have very little interest in a drive-in airshow, but there are a handful of events that are important to me that I would support if they are held in that format. I am not making many concrete plans this year. I do have tickets to Oshkosh and Thunder Over Michigan that I chose to roll over from last year because it was important to me that those two shows have some sort of income to get through a year without a show. I will also support the TBM Reunion and Waukegan events if they are held, regardless of the format in which they are held. Otherwise, I am not buying tickets far in advance of any event due to the uncertainty. Everything else is conditional to the format of the event and whether I've been vaccinated. I don't have a lot of hope for early season events, but with reports on vaccine distribution becoming more encouraging I feel pretty hopeful about late summer, especially some of the fly-ins and smaller events I enjoy.

As FlightlineUK said, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. We'll just have to make the most of what we can until we get there.
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Post by Ken91 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:02 pm

As an airshow attendee with no experience or knowledge as to what it takes to organize, plan, and execute one of these events, I'd like to share my experience from two airshows in Florida in the Fall of 2020. Both shows were at non-military airports, so I'm not too surprised that they were still held. Also for both, their websites and information on tickets talked about COVID protocols of social distancing, requiring masks when in line for concessions, or where you couldn't be distant from others. That sounded good on paper, but didn't mean squat at the actual events. The good news is that these shows are outdoors, but you can also be packed in with hundreds/thousands of your closest friends.

At the first show, my son & I arrived early and took a spot along the showline in the general admission area. That was fine, because we were about 6ft apart from other attendees to the left and right. Those that sat behind us were that far too. So far, so good. As the showtime got closer, more people tried to cram between us. Of course, I expect that under normal circumstances, but didn't appreciate it this time. I never saw any volunteer or organizer say anything to people about distancing or masks. A couple tried to sit between us and another group, but I mentioned to them about the policy of distancing. They weren't very pleased, but somewhat complied by moving back a little. My son & I kept our masks on for the entire show.

The second show was feeling like the first, then we found a spot where people hadn't been gathering yet. The bonus was that is was just to the right of airshow center. However, it was further to walk from the parking area. This time everyone pretty much stayed distant, but, again, there was no enforcement/encouragement to distance and/or wear masks.

For the 2021 season in the US, I would expect that many shows on military bases to be cancelled or postponed. The non-military shows will all depend on the risks and how they can be minimized.
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Post by Adam » Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:18 pm

Encouraging news for English shows from the PM's announcement on easing the current lockdown today. Public buildings can reopen and limited outdoor socialising could be allowed as early as the 12th April, seemingly permitting drive-in airshows and aviation museums to open. Assuming good progress continues, from the 17th May, outdoor events can reopen with up to 10,000 visitors permitted at seated events and 4,000 at non-seated events, but social distancing remains in force. All remaining legal restrictions on social gatherings could be removed as early as the 21st June, but 1 metre social distancing and mask-wearing may remain in some settings. International travel will be permitted as early as the 17th May (presumably quarantine-free between specified low-risk countries, as last year, but this is TBC). Other countries within the United Kingdom will continue to set their own rules.

In reference to earlier posts, I don't believe international travel restrictions will necessarily be a barrier for airshows this year. I went to an overseas show last summer, which had quite a number of international participants from four different countries. I flew out by commercial airline and back by private aircraft, and both were very normal experiences compared to pre-virus times. Arriving on the continent, there were no restrictions at all, the only new requirement on our return to the UK was a digital passenger locator form, which took five minutes at the most. Furthermore, for participants, airshows generally count as "commercial work", which is subject to less stringent travel restrictions in many countries, UK included. Under those rules, I'm taking part in an overseas show in a "red list" country next month (albeit with 10 days of mandatory hotel quarantine on return), even though international travel is generally not legal at the moment. Military teams have also seen more freedom than the average citizen (just look at the Patrouille de France's unexpected arrival on UK shores last May) as well as, I expect, better access to rapid testing. A RIAT-sized show would surely be a logistical nightmare, but a smaller event like Duxford with one or two foreign military teams seems like a realistic aim.

In the calmer parts of 2020, there was little to prevent the free flow of airshow acts across much of western Europe, except for the fact there were almost no airshows for them to fly at. Barring any specific, targeted restrictions caused by emerging varients of coronavirus, what was possible in summer 2020 will probably be equally possible summer 2021.
Last edited by Adam on Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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TooTallDean
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Post by TooTallDean » Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:37 am

It is still early in the airshow season, so there may be time to get much of the population vaccinated, which would be good for events of all types

But my gut feeling is that in the next 2 or 3 months, we will start to see many shows get cancelled.

I hope I am wrong...
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jpujol
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Post by jpujol » Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:49 pm

New York Fleet Week has been canceled again for this year. Not surprising. Navy cannot allow public to infect their ships.

I expect military base shows to be canceled. Again, military cannot allow public to infect their sailors, airmen, Marines and soldiers.

Private shows will probably be drive-in style (or something similar).

Beach shows will probably go on.
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Nick
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Post by Nick » Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:59 pm

jpujol wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:49 pm New York Fleet Week has been canceled again for this year. Not surprising. Navy cannot allow public to infect their ships.

I expect military base shows to be canceled. Again, military cannot allow public to infect their sailors, airmen, Marines and soldiers.

Private shows will probably be drive-in style (or something similar).

Beach shows will probably go on.
I can see eye-to-eye with you on that prediction, it seemingly looks like Military based shows will be the only aerial events that would be significantly impacted again, for private shows, as of now, it currently appears the private organization moving forward with their traditional planning, but could likely go in that direction with Drive-In "movie style", depending on the current situation by then. The only military show so far happening is Barksdale, as their moving forward with Drive-In plans. Likewise, the beach shows have a higher chance of happening, here in my community, The Great Pacific Airshow at Huntington Beach is expected to occur the first weekend of October, same exact for the OC Airshow in Ocean CIty happening the 2nd of the last weekend of June, both of those are beach shows and a few others as well.
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TooTallDean
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Post by TooTallDean » Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:51 am

jpujol wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:49 pm New York Fleet Week has been canceled again for this year. Not surprising. Navy cannot allow public to infect their ships.

I expect military base shows to be canceled. Again, military cannot allow public to infect their sailors, airmen, Marines and soldiers.

Private shows will probably be drive-in style (or something similar).

Beach shows will probably go on.
Very likely an accurate summary.

Here is a quick scan of already cancelled shows.

MCAS Yuma
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2340

Buckeye, AZ
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2814

N Wildwood, NJ
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2846

Star Spangled Salute Air & Space Show, Tinker AFB, OK
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2344

Raider Country Open House, Ellsworth AFB, SD
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2717

Lethbridge International Air Show 2021, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2937

133rd Airlift Wing Centennial and Open House, 133rd Airlift Wing at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2611

Brantford Community Charity Airshow 2021, Brantford, Ontario, Canada
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2935

NAS Jacksonville Air Show, FL
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2325

Westfield International Air Show 2021, Barnes ANGB, Westfield, Massachusetts
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2367

Rhode Island National Guard Open House & Air Show 2021, Quonset State Airport, North Kingstown, Rhode Island
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2831

Royal Navy International Air Day (RNIAD), Yeovilton, England, UK
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=3078

Oregon International Airshow, Hillsboro, OR
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2542

MCAS Beaufort Air Show, SC
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2328

Royal International Air Tattoo (RIAT) 2021 - RIAT's 50th Anniversary, RAF Fairford, UK
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2387

Space Coast Warbird AirShow 2021, Space Coast Regional Airport, Titusville, Florida
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2326

Inland Northwest Skyfest, Fairchild AFB, Spokane, Washington
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2346

America's Freedom Fest 2021
Goshen Municipal Airport
Goshen, Indiana
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2460

Hangar 24 SBD Airfest 2021
San Bernardino International Airport (SBD)
San Bernardino, California
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2419

NAF El Centro Festival of Flight 2021 [Virtual Event Only]
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2339

Findlay Air Expo and Car Show
Findlay Airport (FDY)
Findlay, Ohio
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=2621


Already there are a lot cancelled. More than I expected when I started copy/pasting for this post.
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